Research by Todd Litman of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute (VTPI), in a paper The Mobility-Productivity Paradox, indicates we are past peak driving, in the sense that we have reached a point (or are considerably past the point) at which the costs of driving and motor vehicle infrastructure outweigh the benefits. This won’t be a surprise to anyone paying attention, but it is always worth having citable research.

• The Brake, Streetsblog podcast: Does Constant Driving Really Make Our Country Richer?
• California YIMBY: America’s Highway to Hell (And Poverty)– How We All Lose from Road Spending

Early on, economic productivity did increase with better transportation infrastructure and more travel. But it no longer does. There is now a negative relationship of VMT to economic productivity, as well as a lot of other measures.

Key Takeaways (from the YIMBY article):

• More driving correlates with lower state income: Vehicle miles traveled per capita shows a negative correlation with state GDP per capita.
• Vehicle ownership peaks and then declines with national wealth. International data show that car ownership rises until countries reach a GDP per capita of $50,000, after which it declines despite continued income growth.
• Metro areas with transit tend to outperform those that are more car-dependent. Urban regions with higher transit ridership, fewer highway lanes per capita, and population density tend to generate higher per-capita GDP.